Abstract

With the increasing emphasis on sustainable transportation solutions, there is an urgent need for a system that can accurately assess vehicle-specific energy consumption in real-time. However, the current modeling frameworks have a significant gap in that they are not demand- and congestion-responsive, nor are they capable of modeling the system-wide energy consumption of bus fleets at the vehicle-level, encompassing all three types of powertrains—conventional, hybrid, and electric. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive modeling framework that takes into account passenger loading, considers the dynamics of the system including acceleration, and is capable of predicting the real-time energy usage of each bus in a transit network. Using the Pioneer Valley Transit Authority system as a case study, we calibrated existing powertrain-specific models for conventional diesel, hybrid, and battery electric buses. Our demand- and congestion-responsive energy consumption modeling framework fills this critical gap and offers significant potential for future sustainable transportation planning. Relying on detailed trajectories computed from one month of bus location data, along with passenger counts and road grade, our framework is a novel contribution in that it provides spatiotemporal energy predictions for an entire bus system. As it is readily calibrated with potential improvements in accuracy given more data, this framework can be applied by transit agencies for the purposes of real-time energy consumption monitoring, fleet electrification planning, equity analyses, and carbon emission reduction strategies.